GOODS TRADE

• It is in the interest of both the UK and EU to continue with full access to the Single Market.
• Is less important to be in a trade block in 2016 than it was in 1973 due to 40 years of global trade liberalisation.
• UK will gain the freedom to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with non-EU states.

SERVICES TRADE

• The UK is losing influence whether or not it stays in the EU because euro member states are moving toward tighter financial and fiscal integration.
• The UK is constantly fighting EU regulation and could disadvantage the City of London (e.g. the Financial Transaction Tax).
• Outside the EU, the UK could be a successful offshore financial centre like Switzerland or Singapore.
• Not joining the euro did not harm the City and leaving the EU would not change London’s fundamental attractions.

CAPITAL MOBILITY

• Capital Markets Union could take many years to complete.
• The UK will remain an extremely competitive economy and therefore an attractive destination for foreign investment.
• Additional restrictions on capital mobility are not in the interest of the EU or the UK. The status quo would largely prevail.

LABOUR MOBILITY

• While Britain remains in the EU its immigration policy will be unbalanced. Exit would allow the UK to ‘cherry pick’ the best global talent.
• Immigration has grown faster than the infrastructure, putting a strain on public services.
• Immigration can drive down wages and deprive UK-born workers of jobs.

BUDGET IMPLICATIONS

• Outside the EU, the UK would not need to pay it to GBP10bn net contribution to the EU budget.
• UK could replace the Common Agricultural Policy, which consumes 38% of the total EU budget, with more efficient farm subsidies in the UK.